Not a good thing to be in a year in which the establishment is the target of voters’ wrath.
If there were ever a year in which the people were more anti-establishment than they are in 2016, it would have to have been at the founding of the Republic. Not since 1776 has there been such a wholesale rejection by the people of politics, politicians, the status quo, and those in power over them.
The penultimate outsider has locked up the Republican nomination for president, having defeated a host of establishment candidates.
A septuagenarian socialist has fought the leadership of the Democratic party to a virtual draw.
The anointed crown princess of the Wall Street banks and the corporatist establishment is within a month of being guaranteed the Democratic nomination. Despite the direct support of her cronies in the DNC, the entire Democratic party leadership lined up behind her, a rigged primary system, and having enjoyed a lead of almost 70% in the early polls, Hillary Clinton has been rebuked by a large percentage of rank-and-file Democrats, has seen her unfavorable ratings sky-rocket, and is now losing in popular support among rank-and-file Democrats in national polls.
Media talking heads and political pundits never saw Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders coming.
It has been amusing to watch the parade of pontificators from the establishment being trotted out before the cameras at CNN and MSBNC with their weekly prognostications of the imminent demise of Trump’s campaign and the futility of Bernie’s.
Having had monumentally misread the voters in the primaries, the same political geniuses are now weighing in on the likely match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
We are besieged nightly with computer graphics, pie charts, polls and electoral maps all being read to predict the downfall of Donald Trump. While acknowledging that Hillary Clinton has abysmal favorability ratings, we are quickly told that Trump’s are worse, and are reminded that he is upside down with major constituencies such as women, African Americans, Hispanics, etc.
But none of that analysis explains why Trump is leading with independent voters, and that he is within a few points of Hillary in the media’s own polling.
So what is going on?
There is one question the pollsters do not ask. And it is the defining question in this election cycle.
I am waiting for one of the major polling organizations to pose this simple question: Will you vote for or against the establishment?
I have my own guesstimate how that would be answered by the voting public.
And any competent political strategist would concur. I would be dumbfounded if the establishment were to receive as much as 20% were the question to be scientifically posed!
The reason Trump is not beating Hillary by 80% to 20% is because the public is not focused on the establishment versus anti-establishment issue.
At least Not Yet.
When the Trump campaign focuses the issue on Hillary as the establishment’s darling, any wavering support for her will vanish. My prediction is that Trump will handily defeat Hillary.
As in all campaigns, the candidate at a statistical disadvantage on an issue will try to obfuscate and deflect discussion of the positions that are unpopular with the voters, and attempt to drive media coverage to more favorable topics. Hillary’s team will do all they can to keep the public from paying too close attention to which of the candidates is the establishment’s own.
An immeasurable in the contest is the relative enthusiasm (or rabidness) of Trump and Hillary’s supporters.
While I cannot envisage Hillary’s voters following her through brimstone and broken glass, Trump’s supporters seem willing to march with him through the Gates of Hell.
The pundits and the talking heads may actually be right. Hillary may sweep Trump in November.
But I doubt it.
And if their prior analyses are any indication of their current ones, they are again misreading the situation. And the public.
Author’s Notes:
• I am unaware of any other blog with the Armory’s mission of radicalizing the animal movement. I certainly hope I am not alone, and that there are similar sentiments being expressed by comrades unknown to me.
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